The Annual Offshore Oil & Gas Event
logo

The 25thBeijing International Offshore Oil & Gas Exhibition

ufi

BEIJING,CHINA

March 26-28,2025

LOCATION :Home> News > Industry News

Integrated Oil/Refiners:Potential Impacts of BTA

Pubdate:2017-01-17 09:30 Source:liyanping Click:

Impacts broadly negative for refiners。

As the post-election euphoria for US refiners surrounding potential tax cuts andRINs relief begins to fade, the increasingly topical Border Tax Adjustment (BTA)has forced investors to consider its impacts. While DB’s Washington officecurrently has the chance of passage as only 40%, and the impact would behighly complicated with far too many moving pieces to address withconfidence, the overall impact would be clearly negative for US refiners(positive US E&Ps), driving US crude price to a material premium, reversingrecent global advantages, while increasing domestic product prices andaccelerating demand destruction. E/W coast (PBF, TSO) likely most exposed.For refiners, export flexibility (MPC, PSX, VLO), segment diversification (PSX,MPC) and a domestic-wtd crude slate (HFC, DK) offer partial offsets to the BTA。

For refiners, the BTA would be a resounding negative for the group withproduct export flexibility (PSX, VLO, MPC), segment diversification (PSX, MPC),and a relatively domestic-weighted crude slate (DK, HFC) offering only partialoffsets and leaving the coastal refiners (PBF, TSO) relatively disadvantaged (yetagain). While the implications from a potential BTA are far-reaching - withmaterial visibility to remain elusive until market dynamics are observed realtime– the impact to refiners would be significant and negative: higherdomestic crude price, challenging global competitiveness, while also raisingdomestic product prices and accelerating demand destruction. Absent anincrease in domestic crude price, the implications from the BTA are likelymanageable for most of the group (excluding PBF/TSO) – with an ~1% increaseto product prices needed to maintain 2017 DB EPS estimates (11%/5% forPBF/TSO respectively). However, with domestic crude likely to trade towards atax-adjusted equilibrium with crude exports (domestic crude would trade at a25% premium, in theory, at a 20% tax rate), we estimate an increase in productpricing of 8%/14% needed to maintain profitability across the group assuminga 10%/20% increase in the pricing of domestic crude.

US E&Ps (OXY, PXD), Midstream/infrastructure the clear winners

US E&Ps would emerge as clear winners, with the price of domestic crudelikely to trade at a significant premium to global crude (or the ability to exportcrude tax-free). At least in the near-term, crude export capacity remainsconstrained only a year after the lifting of the crude export ban (exports stillonly represent ~3% of total crude supply (production + imports) in the US),offering significant opportunities for midstream companies to increase pipeline,processing, storage and export capacity in the Gulf Coast. We see PXD(exported 2 cargoes to Europe during 3Q) and OXY (recent commencement ofits Ingleside oil terminal) as relatively better positioned amongst the large-capE&P group, while PSX (nearly 1 million b/d of product and/or crude exportcapacity currently) is best positioned amongst US independent refiners.

 

站长统计
主站蜘蛛池模板: 第九色区AV天堂| 一区二区三区在线视频播放| 黄色网站小视频| 机机对在一起30分钟软件下载| 日本网站在线看| 国产国语在线播放视频| 久久精品国产福利电影网| 91se在线视频| 日本精品一区二区三区视频| 国自产拍91大神精品| 欧美性69式xxxx护士| 日本免费一区二区三区最新| 国产动作大片中文字幕| 亚洲国产91在线| 亚洲情综合五月天| 波多野结衣69xx| 国产精品盗摄一区二区在线| 亚洲国产成人片在线观看| bt天堂在线最新版在线| 日韩理论电影在线| 国产精品久久久| 久久综合九色欧美综合狠狠| 高清影院在线欧美人色| 搡女人真爽免费影院| 六月婷婷中文字幕| 丝瓜app免费下载网址进入ios| 精品人妻少妇一区二区三区在线 | 少妇无码太爽了不卡视频在线看 | 五月天婷婷精品免费视频| 黄网免费在线观看| 最近最新中文字幕免费的一页| 波多野结衣黑丝| 国内偷窥一区二区三区视频| 伊人久久大香线蕉综合热线| 99久久伊人精品综合观看| 欧美在线视频导航| 国产在线不卡免费播放| 一边摸一边叫床一边爽| 波多野结衣作品大全| 国产精品久久久久久| 久久久噜噜噜久久熟女AA片|