The Annual Offshore Oil & Gas Event
logo

The 25thBeijing International Offshore Oil & Gas Exhibition

ufi

BEIJING,CHINA

March 26-28,2025

LOCATION :Home> News > Industry News

Integrated Oil/Refiners:Potential Impacts of BTA

Pubdate:2017-01-17 09:30 Source:liyanping Click:

Impacts broadly negative for refiners。

As the post-election euphoria for US refiners surrounding potential tax cuts andRINs relief begins to fade, the increasingly topical Border Tax Adjustment (BTA)has forced investors to consider its impacts. While DB’s Washington officecurrently has the chance of passage as only 40%, and the impact would behighly complicated with far too many moving pieces to address withconfidence, the overall impact would be clearly negative for US refiners(positive US E&Ps), driving US crude price to a material premium, reversingrecent global advantages, while increasing domestic product prices andaccelerating demand destruction. E/W coast (PBF, TSO) likely most exposed.For refiners, export flexibility (MPC, PSX, VLO), segment diversification (PSX,MPC) and a domestic-wtd crude slate (HFC, DK) offer partial offsets to the BTA。

For refiners, the BTA would be a resounding negative for the group withproduct export flexibility (PSX, VLO, MPC), segment diversification (PSX, MPC),and a relatively domestic-weighted crude slate (DK, HFC) offering only partialoffsets and leaving the coastal refiners (PBF, TSO) relatively disadvantaged (yetagain). While the implications from a potential BTA are far-reaching - withmaterial visibility to remain elusive until market dynamics are observed realtime– the impact to refiners would be significant and negative: higherdomestic crude price, challenging global competitiveness, while also raisingdomestic product prices and accelerating demand destruction. Absent anincrease in domestic crude price, the implications from the BTA are likelymanageable for most of the group (excluding PBF/TSO) – with an ~1% increaseto product prices needed to maintain 2017 DB EPS estimates (11%/5% forPBF/TSO respectively). However, with domestic crude likely to trade towards atax-adjusted equilibrium with crude exports (domestic crude would trade at a25% premium, in theory, at a 20% tax rate), we estimate an increase in productpricing of 8%/14% needed to maintain profitability across the group assuminga 10%/20% increase in the pricing of domestic crude.

US E&Ps (OXY, PXD), Midstream/infrastructure the clear winners

US E&Ps would emerge as clear winners, with the price of domestic crudelikely to trade at a significant premium to global crude (or the ability to exportcrude tax-free). At least in the near-term, crude export capacity remainsconstrained only a year after the lifting of the crude export ban (exports stillonly represent ~3% of total crude supply (production + imports) in the US),offering significant opportunities for midstream companies to increase pipeline,processing, storage and export capacity in the Gulf Coast. We see PXD(exported 2 cargoes to Europe during 3Q) and OXY (recent commencement ofits Ingleside oil terminal) as relatively better positioned amongst the large-capE&P group, while PSX (nearly 1 million b/d of product and/or crude exportcapacity currently) is best positioned amongst US independent refiners.

 

主站蜘蛛池模板: 欧美牲交a欧美牲交aⅴ免费真| 免费一级欧美在线观看视频片| 人妻人人澡人人添人人爽人人玩| 中文字幕在线视频精品| 野花社区视频在线观看| 日本精品高清一区二区| 国产成人一区二区三区在线观看| 亚洲综合无码AV一区二区| wwwjizzjizz| 精品国产一区二区三区香蕉| 成人免费无毒在线观看网站| 向日葵app在线观看免费下载视频| 中文字幕永久更新| 老司机深夜福利影院| 成人区视频爽爽爽爽爽| 同城免费妇女寂寞| 一区二区精品视频| 猫咪免费观看人成网站在线| 大肉大捧一进一出好爽视频mba| 亚洲视频一区在线观看| 99久久伊人精品综合观看| 欧美精品第一页| 国产精品亚洲五月天高清| 亚洲精品无码久久毛片波多野吉衣| 99精品国产在热久久| 欧美激情第1页| 国产男女猛烈无遮挡免费视频| 久热中文字幕在线精品免费 | 日韩色图在线观看| 国产悠悠视频在线播放| 久久免费观看国产精品| 翁止熄痒禁伦短文合集免费视频 | 欧美专区在线播放| 国产无遮挡又黄又爽在线观看| 久久电影网午夜鲁丝片免费| 荡乱妇3p疯狂伦交下载阅读| 成年人看的免费视频| 你是我的城池营垒免费观看完整版| 中国日本欧美韩国18| 狠狠人妻久久久久久综合蜜桃| 国产精品美女视视频专区|