The Annual Offshore Oil & Gas Event
logo

The 25thBeijing International Offshore Oil & Gas Exhibition

ufi

BEIJING,CHINA

March 26-28,2025

LOCATION :Home> News > Industry News

Indonesia Palm Oil:Cash flows set to surge but show me the money

Pubdate:2016-11-10 11:17 Source:liyanping Click:

It has been a volatile year for crude palm oil (CPO): After a 32% rally in 1Q due to ElNi?o and a weak South American soybean harvest, the sector gave back half its gainsin 2Q. A surge in hog prices and animal feed (soymeal) demand created a surplus ofsoy oil (by-product of soy crush). Not only did soy oil crowd CPO out of the Chinesemarket in 2Q but the value conscious Indian demand also fell as soy oil’s premium overCPO shrunk. This trend reversed in 3Q – falling hog and soymeal prices reduced theneed to crush soy into meal and oil, lifting soy oil and CPO prices to 2016 highs.

Trends in 2016 point to an upturn for palm oil: The prospects of CPO and soy oil,palm oil’s biggest competitor, are closely tied to animal feed demand in China, whichhas accounted for half the growth in global soymeal consumption since 2008. Thegreater the demand for soymeal, the greater the supply of soy oil and lower thedemand (and price) of CPO. But, after years of strong growth in soy meal consumption,China’s feed protein intake per unit of meat production is approaching saturation levelsseen in the US and the EU. Going forward, potentially lower growth in soymeal demandis likely to leave a greater share of the vegetable oils market for CPO.

But, earnings growth alone won’t move share prices: After the supply contraction in2016, we see a balanced market in 2017 with relatively thin inventories. We raise our2017 EBITDA estimates by 1-9% to 19-40% above consensus. CPO price recovery toabove USD700/MT and lower capex at GGR and FR should push FCFE yields intodouble digits by 2018, but investors need to see evidence of the cash flows being usedto cut debt and raise dividends to get excited. Neither FR nor GGR has done so in thepast. The former has been in an expansionary phase through the downcycle and thelatter has a history of opaque investments. Both now have a chance to change courseand reverse years of share price underperformance.

主站蜘蛛池模板: 国产va在线播放| 日本动态120秒免费| 国产精品永久免费10000| 亚洲精品无码不卡| 99re这里只有精品6| 69av视频在线观看| 狠狠色成人综合首页| 日韩AV无码久久精品免费| 国产成人无码A区在线观看导航| 亚洲va中文字幕无码久久| tom影院亚洲国产一区二区| 欧美妈妈的朋友| 大胆gogo高清在线观看| 四虎免费大片aⅴ入口| 久久精品国产亚洲av不卡| 91丨九色丨首页在线观看| 欧美日韩国产亚洲人成| 国产精品国产国产aⅴ| 亚洲韩精品欧美一区二区三区| aⅴ在线免费观看| 毛片a级三毛片免费播放| 好妈妈5高清中字在线观看| 全黄裸片一29分钟免费真人版| videos欧美成人| 波多野结衣cesd—819高清| 国产精品福利一区二区久久| 亚洲人成7777| 韩国免费播放一级毛片| 最近2019年中文字幕国语大全| 国产成人a大片大片在线播放| 久久久亚洲精品无码| 精品欧美小视频在线观看| 女m羞辱调教视频网站| 亚洲毛片一级带毛片基地| 99热99操99射| 狠狠色噜噜狠狠狠| 国产精品无码无片在线观看 | 色综合天天综合网国产成人网 | 免费能直接在线观看黄的视频| 欧美极品欧美日韩| 国产激情对白一区二区三区四|