The Annual Offshore Oil & Gas Event
logo

The 25thBeijing International Offshore Oil & Gas Exhibition

ufi

BEIJING,CHINA

March 26-28,2025

LOCATION :Home> News > Industry News

Oil prices may recover in 2015

Pubdate:2014-12-31 09:26 Source:yueyue Click:

In late 1979, I began work on my PhD thesis, an empirical investigation of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' surplus and its disposal. It was the end of a decade in which oil prices had undergone two dramatic increases, and most of the geniuses of the day were confidently predicting that they would continue to soar, from under $40 a barrel - a historic high at that time - to above $100. By the time I finished my research in 1982, the price of oil had begun what would become a 20-year plunge. It would not hit $100 per barrel until January 2008.

I used to joke that the most important thing I learned from my research was never to attempt to forecast the price of oil. As 2014 comes to a close, the price of oil has just crossed the $100 threshold again - this time headed down. One of the big questions for 2015 is whether the decline will continue. Despite my earlier cynicism, I do believe that it is possible to make a broad prediction as to where oil prices are headed.

Over the course of my career, I have tried to determine whether there is such a thing as an equilibrium oil price. I have spent many hours trying to guide, cajole, and beg my energy analysts to create a model that might identify it, just as we have for currencies, bond yields, and equities. I have also discussed the idea with industry experts, most of whom believe that one exists, but that it moves around a lot, because it is greatly influenced by the marginal cost of oil production - itself an unstable variable. My conclusion is that a good indication of this moving equilibrium does exist: the five-year forward oil price, or the amount paid for guaranteed delivery of oil five years from now.

A few years ago, I began paying attention to the five-year forward oil price as it compares to the Brent crude oil spot price, the price of a barrel of oil today. I suspect that the five-year forward price is much less influenced by speculation in the oil market than the spot price, and more representative of true commercial needs. So when the five-year price starts moving in a different direction than the spot price, I take notice.

In 2011, after both prices had recovered from the collapse induced by the 2008 credit crisis, the five-year price started to come down gradually, while the spot price continued to surge for a while. This jibed with what I had identified as two big factors fundamentally driving the price of oil: the early days of the exploitation of shale oil and gas in the United States, and the shift in China's economic focus from quantity to quality, which implied that the Chinese economy would no longer be consuming energy at the frenetic rate it had been.

I concluded that there was a fair chance that oil prices were peaking and that before too long spot prices would reverse and start to decline. I thought it was probably the beginning of a move back down to $80 a barrel - precisely where the price has landed at the end of 2014. The spot price has even recently slipped below that level. It was one of my better forecasts.

I no longer make predictions for a living, but I do know one thing: Oil prices will either rise or fall. And I suspect that I know which way they will go. Oil prices may not start rising in the coming months, but, as 2014 comes to a close, forces that will eventually halt their decline are beginning to appear.

The drop in the spot price of oil has taken it significantly below the five-year forward price, which remains close to $80 a barrel. My hunch for 2015 is that oil prices may continue to drop in the short term; unlike in the past four years, however, they are likely to finish the year higher than they were when it began.

The author, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, is a visiting research fellow at Bruegel, the Brussels-based economic think tank.

主站蜘蛛池模板: 日本免费的一级v一片| 色黄网站成年女人色毛片| 风间由美性色一区二区三区| 狠狠色狠狠色很很综合很久久| 快猫官方网站是多少| 国产精品666| 亚洲国产成人久久精品影视| 一本色道久久88加勒比—综合 | 女人张开腿日出白浆视频| 农村乱人伦一区二区| jiuma啊灬啊别停灬啊灬快点| 花季传媒app免费版网站下载安装| 日本边添边摸边做边爱的视频| 国产人成视频在线视频| 亚洲中文字幕久久无码| 日本xxxxx在线观看| 欧美日韩精品一区二区在线播放| 国产高清一区二区三区视频| 免费福利在线观看| a级毛片免费播放| 欧美视频免费在线| 在线看片你懂的| 你是我的女人中文字幕高清| 中文字幕在线电影| 草莓视频网站下载| 成人免费黄色网址| 俄罗斯极品美女毛片免费播放| 99在线精品免费视频九九视| 精品国产免费一区二区| 成年女人免费播放影院| 国产一级免费片| yw在线观看成人免费| 沉伦柳淑云漫画3d| 国产精品乱码一区二区三区 | 国产精彩视频在线| 亚洲av永久综合在线观看尤物| 韩国三级bd高清中文字幕合集| 日韩电影免费在线观看网址| 国产丝袜第一页| 久久99精品视频| 色偷偷人人澡人人爽人人模|